We want to do good.
To ease suffering.
To increase joy.
To make the kind of choices
that leave the world lighter than we found it.
But life rarely hands us certainty.
We cannot know all the consequences.
We cannot predict all the ripples.
We cannot see the future.
And so we reach for something
to help us choose wisely
despite the fog.
We reach for expected utility.
The quiet idea
that even when we don’t know the outcome,
we can choose the path
most likely to bring about
the greatest good.
It is where utilitarianism meets uncertainty—
not as enemies,
but as partners
in the careful art
of ethical living.
What Is Expected Utility?
Expected utility asks us
to weigh outcomes not just by their goodness,
but by their probability.
It says:
Don’t just ask what could happen—
ask how likely it is.
A small chance at great joy
may be worth more
than a sure but minor comfort.
A likely harm
may outweigh a distant hope.
This is not about cold numbers.
It is about wise risk.
It is about choosing in a world
that refuses to be predictable.
And it is one of the most human things we do.
Utilitarianism in a World Without Guarantees
Utilitarianism asks:
What will create the most happiness?
What will reduce the most pain?
But rarely can we know these things for sure.
So expected utility helps.
It gives us a compass—
not perfect,
but pointed.
It helps us choose
when the future is not a map
but a sky of possibilities.
- Should I donate to this cause
even if I can’t track every impact? - Should I speak up in this meeting,
hoping it might change something?
We do not need certainty.
We need reasonable care
with the unknown.
The Risk of Caring
To use expected utility well
is to live with a kind of moral humility.
We will not always be right.
Sometimes we’ll help less than we hoped.
Sometimes we’ll hurt more than we meant.
But still,
we choose.
Because choosing with care,
even amid uncertainty,
is better than choosing with indifference.
It’s not perfection we seek—
but alignment.
With our values.
With our intentions.
With the lives our choices touch.
When the Math Is Not Enough
Expected utility can guide.
But it cannot see everything.
It cannot always account
for dignity,
for justice,
for sacredness.
Some outcomes matter
not because they are likely,
but because they reflect who we are.
And some harms
should not be risked—
no matter how unlikely.
So even as we estimate and weigh,
we must also listen
to the quiet voice of conscience.
Because ethics lives not only
in calculation—
but in care.
A Closing Reflection
If you find yourself facing a choice
with no clear outcome,
pause.
Ask:
- What are the possible futures this choice could bring?
- Which outcomes matter most—not just in scale,
but in meaning? - Am I willing to choose,
knowing I do not know everything?
Because doing good
is not about knowing the end—
it is about walking
with intention
into the uncertainty.
And in the end, utilitarianism and expected utility remind us
that ethics is not a science of certainty,
but a practice of thoughtful hope.
That we can honor both reason and risk,
both probability and principle.
And that when we choose with care,
even in the dark,
we become part of a deeper light—
not because we know the future,
but because we dare to meet it
with kindness,
wisdom,
and the gentle courage
to try.