Most people don’t spend a lot of time thinking about their beliefs. They inherit them. They absorb them. They repeat them.
But the truth is, your beliefs shape your decisions, your behavior, and ultimately, your future. Whether it’s a belief about health, leadership, the economy, or your own capabilities — if the belief is wrong, the consequences can be real.
Jonathan Baron, in Thinking and Deciding, makes an important distinction: thinking isn’t just about what to do — it’s also about what to believe. And learning to think better about your beliefs is one of the most powerful upgrades you can make in your life.
Here’s how I see it.
Beliefs Are Decisions in Disguise
We don’t usually think of beliefs as choices. But they are. When you decide to believe something — say, “This strategy will work” or “This person can’t change” — you’re making a judgment based on evidence (or sometimes, the lack of it).
Beliefs are like mental shortcuts. They help us filter information and make quicker decisions. That’s useful — but also risky. Because if your belief is flawed, your decision will be too.
In business, I’ve seen people hold onto outdated assumptions far too long.
- “This product will never be disrupted.”
- “That market’s too small to matter.”
- “People won’t pay for that feature.”
More often than not, those beliefs weren’t based on data — just comfort or habit.
Good Belief Thinking Follows the Evidence
Baron lays out a simple principle: when we think about beliefs, our goal should be to align them with reality. That means thinking of beliefs not as identities to defend, but as hypotheses to test.
Ask yourself:
- What’s the evidence for this belief?
- What’s the evidence against it?
- Have I actively looked for disconfirming information — or just the stuff that supports what I already think?
That last one — actively open-minded thinking — is a big deal. It’s the antidote to confirmation bias. And it’s something I try to practice whenever I’m learning something new, especially in fields where I’m not the expert.
Why This Matters More Than Ever
In the information age, the real challenge isn’t access to data — it’s knowing what to trust. Beliefs form fast. Algorithms reinforce them. And people get locked into echo chambers where their assumptions never get challenged.
That’s not just a problem for individuals. It’s a problem for societies. When people build their worldview on weak or false beliefs, everything from public health to innovation to democracy suffers.
So here’s the alternative: build your beliefs like a scientist. Be ready to revise them when the data changes. Don’t cling to ideas just because they’re familiar or comfortable. Be curious — and a little skeptical.
A Simple Habit That Helps
Whenever I read something persuasive or hear a strong opinion — especially one that I agree with — I try to pause and ask myself:
- “What would someone smart who disagrees with this say?”
- “Is there any credible evidence I haven’t seen yet?”
It’s not about being indecisive. It’s about being deliberate. And over time, it helps you build beliefs that are actually worth having — not just emotionally satisfying, but reality-aligned.
Final Thought: Strong Beliefs, Loosely Held
One of the best phrases I’ve come across in the world of innovation is this: strong beliefs, loosely held.
It means being confident enough to act, but humble enough to change your mind.
In a world that’s always changing, that mindset isn’t just useful — it’s essential.
Because the cost of a false belief isn’t just a bad decision. It’s a missed opportunity to grow, to lead, and to make better choices next time.