When people ask me what separates strong decision-makers from the rest, I often come back to one idea: the quality of your decisions depends on the quality of your thinking. And the quality of your thinking depends on how you search — and how you draw inferences from what you find.
Jonathan Baron, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, outlined something I think more people should know about: the search-inference framework. It’s a simple but powerful model of how good thinking works — whether you’re trying to fix a leaky faucet, make a business decision, or figure out what career path to take.
Let’s unpack it.
Thinking Starts with a Question
Good thinking begins with a problem. A doubt. A moment of friction.
- “Which job should I take?”
- “Is this piece of news accurate?”
- “What kind of parent, partner, or leader do I want to be?”
These aren’t just abstract questions — they’re decisions waiting to be made. And before we make them, we start to search.
The Three Things We Search For
Baron says that every meaningful thinking process involves a search for three key things:
- Possibilities
What are my options?
In any decision — big or small — we begin by imagining alternatives. Take a college student choosing an elective. One possibility might be an economics course; another, a creative writing seminar. Some options come from external suggestions; others come from memory or experience. - Evidence
What do I know (or need to know) about these options?
This could be data, past experiences, input from others, or things we look up. Evidence helps us weigh which options are better or worse — but only if it’s relevant and used thoughtfully. - Goals
What am I trying to achieve?
This is where a lot of people go wrong. They make decisions without being clear on what really matters to them. If the student values free time, the heavier reading course might not fit. If they value being challenged, that same course could be perfect.
Then Comes Inference
Once we’ve gathered possibilities, evidence, and goals, we move to inference — that is, making judgments.
This is the moment where we say: “Given everything I’ve considered, I think this is the best choice.”
It’s also where bias can creep in. We might overvalue recent events (recency bias), ignore counterarguments (confirmation bias), or be overly confident in our predictions.
This is why clear goals matter. They give weight to the right kinds of evidence. They act as a filter — helping us focus on what’s useful and ignore what’s noise.
Why This Framework Matters
In business, I’ve seen that good leaders think this way instinctively. Before making a big decision, they map out options. They gather evidence. They clarify what success looks like. And they constantly revise their thinking based on new information.
But I’ve also seen the opposite. People jump to conclusions. They rely on gut feelings without checking their assumptions. They confuse speed with clarity. That’s when bad decisions happen — and often, the consequences are expensive.
The search-inference framework reminds us that good thinking isn’t just about what we conclude. It’s about how we get there.
Applying This in Everyday Life
You don’t need to be a CEO or policymaker to use this. In fact, the best time to apply this framework is in your everyday choices.
- Thinking about a health decision? Search for options (treatment paths), gather evidence (medical advice, risks), and clarify your goal (longevity, quality of life, cost).
- Facing a tough conversation? Consider your communication options, think about the other person’s perspective (evidence), and decide what outcome you want (clarity, closure, harmony).
- Planning a new project? Explore possible approaches, research what’s worked for others, and define what success looks like.
It sounds simple. And it is. But it’s rarely easy — especially when emotions run high or time is limited. That’s why it helps to make this framework a habit. Write things down. Map out the three parts of your search. Ask better questions.
Final Thought: Thinking Is a Skill
We tend to assume that thinking is automatic. But like any skill, it can be learned — and improved.
The search-inference framework is a tool. It won’t make the hard decisions easy. But it will make your thinking clearer. And when your thinking is clear, your actions follow — with more confidence, more coherence, and fewer regrets.
In a world full of noise, that clarity is worth a lot.
Bill Gates once said that success is a lousy teacher. I’d add that bad thinking is an expensive one. Better to learn the method now — and use it every time you face something that matters.