You make a guess.
Not out loud, perhaps—
but in your mind.
A quiet estimate:
I’m 80% sure this will happen.
I feel 60% confident that this is the right choice.
Maybe there’s only a 10% chance… but still.
We live by these estimates.
We plan, hope, retreat, decide—
not from certainty,
but from probability judgments we carry like inner weather.
But how do we know if our guesses are good?
Not just lucky,
not just clever,
but fair, honest, and calibrated?
This is where scoring rules come in—
not as punishment,
but as truth-telling tools.
They help us see how well our beliefs align with reality.
They help us learn.
What Is a Scoring Rule?
A scoring rule is a method
for evaluating probability judgments.
You make a prediction,
assign a confidence level—
and once the outcome is known,
the scoring rule tells you:
How close were you to the truth?
How fair was your certainty?
If you were 100% confident and wrong,
you will feel the weight.
If you were 60% sure and right,
your reward will be lighter—tempered by caution.
Scoring rules reward not just accuracy,
but honest confidence.
They teach us that being right isn’t enough—
you must also be right at the right scale.
Why They Matter
In a world where opinions fly freely,
scoring rules remind us:
Confidence carries responsibility.
They teach us to be accountable for our beliefs.
To say, “I was 90% sure,”
and then ask,
Was that too much? Too little? Just right?
Without this reflection,
we drift.
We speak with certainty we haven’t earned.
We hedge when we should stand firm.
We forget to ask whether our judgment
matches the shape of the world.
Scoring rules bring us back—
to integrity,
to awareness,
to proportion.
Proper Scoring Rules: Encouraging Honesty
Some scoring rules are proper.
That is, they reward you most
when you report your true beliefs.
They are designed to discourage bluffing,
exaggeration,
and false humility.
They say:
Don’t pretend to be more sure than you are.
Don’t downplay your confidence to seem cautious.
Say what you truly believe, and trust the score will be fair.
This is not just a mathematical idea.
It is an ethical one.
It calls us to be truthful—
not just in what we believe,
but in how we express belief itself.
A Practice of Self-Honesty
Using scoring rules well
requires a kind of inner honesty.
It’s easy to speak boldly
when nothing’s at stake.
It’s harder to say,
I’m only 60% sure,
when you want so badly to be right.
But every time we let our score reflect our belief,
we become more calibrated,
more aware,
more prepared for the next uncertain moment.
The score isn’t a grade.
It’s a mirror.
It helps us grow into a mind
that is not just smart,
but sincere.
A Closing Reflection
If you find yourself making predictions—
in your work, your relationships, your inner life—
pause.
Ask:
- How confident am I, truly?
- If I had to stand by this estimate and be scored,
would I say the same thing? - Do I want to be right—or do I want to think fairly?
Because scoring rules aren’t about ego.
They’re about alignment.
They help us think in a way that matches the world,
and speak in a way that matches the heart.
And in the end, scoring rules don’t exist to punish wrongness—
they exist to reward honesty.
They teach us that the most trustworthy minds
are not those who are always right,
but those who learn to live,
thought by thought,
in conversation with the truth.