Somewhere in Wales, a small woodland stands quietly, its trees brushing the wind, its paths soft with moss. No one is there today. But what if a car park were added? What if a walking trail looped through its heart, and families in nearby towns knew it was there?
Would they come?
This is not just a question of imagination. It is a question of prediction. For environmental economists, knowing how many people are likely to visit a woodland—and how often—is a powerful key to unlocking its value.
Because behind every forest path and picnic bench lies a simple truth: planning for nature requires planning for people.
From Data to Decisions
In Chapter 4 of Applied Environmental Economics, the authors explore how to predict recreation visits, not just values. This subtle shift—from abstract worth to actual behavior—marks a critical evolution in environmental decision-making.
It’s one thing to say a forest visit is worth £5 in recreational value. It’s another to ask: how many people will take that visit in the first place?
To answer this, the authors combine household survey data with spatial modelling, using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to simulate who goes where, when, and how often.
This is not armchair theory—it’s logistical empathy. It’s trying to see the landscape through people’s eyes and schedules, and ask: Would I go there?
The Machinery of Movement
People don’t make travel decisions in a vacuum. Distance, road networks, terrain, population density, and substitute destinations all affect our choices.
The researchers begin by building digital travel-time zones—concentric regions around forests defined not by kilometers but by minutes. For instance, a forest 40 minutes away may see a very different visitor pattern than one 15 minutes away. But the quality of roads, speed limits, and the presence of urban centers also play a role.
Using GIS, they overlay these zones with census data, building a “visitor surface”—a predictive map showing where demand for woodland recreation is strongest. It’s not just about proximity; it’s about access.
And sometimes, access is unequal.
The Social Dimension of Prediction
One haunting insight from the research is that recreational access isn’t always equitable. Wealthier, more mobile populations are more likely to visit woodlands, even if poorer communities live closer. Why? Because access is about more than distance. It’s about cars, information, time, and trust.
By predicting visits spatially, the authors reveal these hidden inequities—an invaluable tool for planners and policymakers. If we know where demand is high but access is low, we can respond with better infrastructure, targeted outreach, or the creation of new green spaces where they are most needed.
This isn’t just economics. It’s environmental justice.
Two Forests, One Map
The predictive models are tested across multiple woodlands—some coniferous, some broadleaf, some remote, some urban-adjacent. And with each iteration, the map becomes sharper.
We begin to see: this forest near a large town will draw tens of thousands of visits annually. That one, deeper in the hills, may remain quiet, treasured by the few who find it. Both have value—but of different kinds.
And so the model doesn’t replace the forest. It reveals its potential. It gives voice to the patterns of recreation that might otherwise go unnoticed.
From Silence to Strategy
Predicting visits may sound technical, but its implications are personal.
It means we can plan forests not just for trees, but for people. It means that a quiet hillside, if turned into a well-designed woodland, could become a beloved weekend escape. It means we can weigh the benefits of conservation not in theory, but in footsteps.
And perhaps most importantly, it means those who most need nature’s gifts—rest, air, beauty—can be better served.
The Forests We Will Walk
Prediction is not prophecy. It’s not a guarantee of visitors, or of value. But it’s a map of possibility.
By anticipating where people will go, how far they’ll travel, and how often they’ll return, we move closer to building a world where nature is not an afterthought, but a shared asset—planned for, protected, and cherished.
So the next time you see a forest bustling with families, joggers, birdwatchers, and dreamers, know this: someone, somewhere, predicted they would come.
And they were right.