Every decision is a quiet gamble.
Not just on what will happen—
but on what we think we’ll feel
when it does.
We imagine the future,
assign it value,
and act accordingly.
But life, as it turns out,
has more layers.
Because the pleasure we imagine
is not always the pleasure we receive.
And the value we assign
is not always the truth we live.
This is the unfolding of three ways we measure worth:
- Predicted utility — what we think will make us happy.
- Decision utility — what guides our actual choice.
- Experienced utility — what we feel once the choice is lived.
And between them
lives the complexity
of being human.
The Dream of Prediction
We like to believe we can forecast joy.
That we know what we want,
and how much we’ll love it when it arrives.
This is predicted utility—
our mental projection
of future satisfaction.
It shapes how we plan.
It colors our longings.
It drives the stories we tell ourselves about
what will finally make it all feel worth it.
But prediction is often imperfect.
We imagine more delight than reality delivers.
We forget how quickly new becomes normal.
We underestimate the joy in quiet things,
and overestimate the glow of milestones.
The Moment of Choice
Then comes the decision.
The turning point.
Here, we don’t always choose
what we predicted would make us happiest.
We choose what feels most justifiable,
most safe,
most consistent with who we believe we are.
This is decision utility—
the value that tips the scale at the moment of choice.
It is shaped by incentives,
by identity,
by how much pressure we feel
to make the “right” call.
But sometimes,
what drives the decision
is not the same
as what drives our eventual satisfaction.
The Reality of Experience
And then, life unfolds.
The choice is made.
The outcome arrives.
We live it.
Here, there is no imagining—
only feeling.
This is experienced utility—
the true weight of joy,
regret,
relief,
or disappointment
that the choice delivers.
And often, it surprises us.
The vacation we longed for may feel flat.
The ordinary routine we nearly left behind
may turn out to be our peace.
Because what we feel
is sometimes far from what we expected to.
When the Three Utilities Disagree
This is the human condition:
that we predict one thing,
choose another,
and experience yet another still.
And the gap between them
is where reflection lives.
We learn not just by doing,
but by noticing the mismatch.
We ask:
- Why did I choose that,
if it didn’t give me the feeling I expected? - What can I learn from this gap?
- How do I refine my predictions,
so that future choices bring truer joy?
This is how wisdom grows:
by watching our own mind
through time.
A Closing Reflection
If you are facing a decision,
one that seems promising—
or one you fear will disappoint—
pause.
Ask:
- What am I predicting I will feel?
- Is that prediction based on memory,
or fantasy? - What value is guiding my actual choice?
- And what has experience taught me
about what really fills me?
Because to live well
is not to predict perfectly,
but to listen deeply
to the moments after the decision.
The ones where the truth shows itself,
quietly,
in the lived texture of a day.
And in the end, experienced, predicted, and decision utility remind us
that the value of something is not just what we expect,
not just what we choose—
but what it becomes
when it’s ours.
And the art of living wisely
is learning to close the distance
between what we imagine,
what we choose,
and what truly brings us
peace.